The UEFA Champions league draw unveiled interesting matchups, such as the repeat of last season’s semi-final between Real Madrid and Manchester City, where the English side emerged victorious on their way to lifting the Champions League trophy. The clash between PSG and Barcelona promises a high tempo duel, with one team still pursuing European glory and the other seeking to reclaim its position among the elite in the Champions League. Finally, the encounter between Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund offers an intriguing clash of styles.
Moving forward to examine the favourites and their respective probabilities of winning the Champions League in the current season.
- Manchester City
Man City has consistently been early favourites to clinch the Champions League each season, but their recent triumph, lifting the trophy last year, solidifies their capability. Their defensive prowess remains formidable.
Man City had a favourable group stage, emerging unbeaten against RB Leipzig, Crvena zvezda, and Young Boys. This flawless performance extended into the last 16, with FC Copenhagen defeated convincingly both home and away. With their recent victories, Man City has now joined the ranks of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich as only the third team to win 10 consecutive Champions League matches. Holders City must overcome Real once again to defend their crown after trouncing the 14-time winners last season in the semi-final en route to claiming the treble.
- Real Madrid
Real Madrid, having suffered defeat to Man City last season (5-1 in the semi-finals), embarks on their latest quest for a record-extending 15th European Cup triumph. Despite their victory in 2022, Real Madrid faces an intriguing campaign with Karim Benzema gone and Thibaut Courtois sidelined due to a long-term injury, a pivotal player in their triumph over Liverpool.
Real Madrid also completed the group stage with a flawless record, securing seven victories, including a narrow 1-0 win against Leipzig. Although they fell short of winning eight in a row, a 1-1 draw in their second leg against RB Leipzig was sufficient to secure another Champions League quarter-final berth. Their next challenge awaits against Manchester City which is claimed to be the best fight in the tournament if not the final.
- Paris Saint-Germain
PSG emerges as the most fortunate team following the draw, setting their sights on the quarter-finals and envisioning a return to Wembley for another shot at claiming the coveted trophy cherished by their Qatari owners.
With the draw sparing them from the toughest opponents, PSG now faces a Barcelona squad perceived to be weaker than the one they eliminated three years ago, Borussia Dortmund, whom they already defeated in the group stage, and an Atletico Madrid team struggling to maintain their position in La Liga’s top four. Despite their relatively smooth victory over Real Sociedad in the last 16, PSG faces an enticing matchup against Barcelona, a fixture marked by both boardroom battles and on-pitch drama in recent years.
The rivalry between PSG and Barcelona has produced captivating encounters over the past decade, notably their dramatic last-16 clash in the 2016-17 season. PSG’s stunning 4-0 first-leg lead was overshadowed by Barcelona’s incredible 6-1 comeback victory in the return leg, with three goals scored after the 88th minute marking one of the most remarkable turnarounds in Champions League history.
- Arsenal
Arsenal’s return to the Champions League after a prolonged absence has ignited hopes of breaking their quarter-final curse. Despite being Europa League regulars in recent years, they dominated their group with four wins from six matches, setting the stage for a last-16 showdown against Porto. Though trailing 1-0 after the first leg, Arsenal clinched victory in a nerve-wracking penalty shootout, securing a spot in the quarter-finals for the first time since 2009/10.
However, their celebrations were tempered by the prospect of facing Bayern Munich in the next round. Manager Mikel Arteta faces the challenge of balancing European aspirations with their Premier League campaign, with uncertainties looming over their ability to contend for the title. Yet, Arsenal’s recent resurgence provides a glimmer of hope, suggesting they could pose a threat to formidable opponents like Bayern, City, or Real on their day. Despite the daunting task ahead, Arsenal’s current momentum instills a sense of optimism among fans, fueling anticipation for what lies ahead in their Champions League journey.
- Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich made a mammoth move in the summer transfer window by acquiring Harry Kane, aiming to propel them back to European prominence. Despite being six-time champions, Bayern suffered a humbling defeat in the quarter-finals last season against Man City, losing 4-1 over two legs.
In the group stage, Bayern remained unbeaten with five wins and one draw. However, they faced a challenging path to stay in the Champions League after a 1-0 defeat to Lazio in the first leg of the last 16 tie. Despite this setback, Bayern rallied in the second leg, securing a 3-1 aggregate victory, largely thanks to Harry Kane’s brace. Bayern has also dominated recent encounters with Arsenal, winning 5-1 in each of their last three meetings in Europe’s top club competition.
Overall, Bayern has won seven out of 12 total meetings between the two teams, with just three losses. Additionally, Harry Kane boasts an impressive record against Arsenal, having scored 14 goals and provided three assists in 19 North London derbies during his Tottenham career.
- Barcelona
Barcelona, having exited the Champions League at the group stage last season, redeemed themselves by topping Group H this time. Despite a tougher group last season, their subsequent La Liga triumph hinted at their resilience. This season, Barcelona’s path appeared smoother, finishing ahead of Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, and newcomers Royal Antwerp.
In the last 16, Barcelona initially led Napoli but settled for a 1-1 draw. However, they clinched a 3-2 victory in the return leg, securing a quarter-final berth for the first time since 2020. Though their meeting with PSG favours the latter, Barcelona’s chances of lifting the European Cup at Wembley seem uncertain amid their transitional phase. While talents from La Masia offer hope for the future, they may not be ready to propel Barcelona to glory without additional support.
Despite challenges, Barcelona’s resurgence cannot be discounted entirely. With Robert Lewandowski’s return to form, a return to Wembley holds potential. However, hope rather than conviction fuels Catalonia’s aspirations for Champions League success this year.
- Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid’s unexpected journey to the quarterfinals after trailing Inter Milan 1-0 in the first leg came as a surprise to many. Despite Inter’s impressive season, Atletico’s 2-1 victory in the second leg, leading to a penalty shootout triumph, marked a resilient comeback.
This redemption follows Atletico Madrid’s group stage exit last season, showcasing their seventh quarter-final appearance in the past 11 seasons, including two final runs. Their upcoming challenge against Borussia Dortmund poses an opportunity to maintain their underdog status, especially if their domestic performance falters.
Diego Simeone seeks a strong Champions League display to overshadow their recent struggles in La Liga, where a loss to potential semi-final opponents Barcelona could jeopardize their top-four standing. Nonetheless, Simeone’s resilience is evident, as demonstrated by Atletico’s tenacity in overcoming the Serie A leaders in the last 16 tie.
- Borussia Dortmund
Similar to Atletico, Borussia Dortmund’s focus may shift towards securing a Champions League spot for next season as they currently occupy the fourth position in their domestic league, facing the risk of dropping out of qualifying spots.
Despite an impressive start against Feyenoord, Dortmund struggled against the Eredivisie side, highlighting potential challenges ahead. While they topped the group stage, expectations for their Champions League journey were modest given their previous exits in 2020/21 and 2022/23. Nevertheless, Dortmund emerged as group winners, outperforming Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan, and Newcastle.
Advancing to the last 16, Dortmund showcased their strength with a 3-1 victory over PSV, securing their place in the quarterfinals for the second time in seven seasons. They now prepare to face Atletico Madrid in a challenging encounter.
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